By Dragana Avramov, Miroslava Maskova
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Additional resources for Active Ageing in Europe Volume 1 (Population Studies) (Vol 1)
Both influences caused intensive population ageing (in some countries with the exception of the first half of the 1980s mentioned above). However, in the former socialist countries total fertility rate fluctuated around replacement level (2,1 children per woman) during the l970s and 1980s while middle and old age mortality stagnated or worsened. Both factors were keeping the proportion of the elderly at relatively low levels. Whilst a substantial sharp decline in fertility occurred in many of them in the 1990s, its influence has not markedly manifested itself yet in the relations of the age structure.
100 93 135 138 France 100 111 146 139 Germany 100 119 150 121 Italy 100 108 125 115 Czech Rep. 100 126 141 167 Sweden 100 132 141 131 Source: own calculations based on data from: Council of Europe, 2001; United Nations, 2001b. 8. – Average annual growth rate of the population aged 65-79, selected countries, 2000-2015, 2015-2030 and 2030-2050 5 2000-2015 4 2015-2030 3 2030-2050 2 1 % 0 -1 -2 ia en rm A y ke r Tu d. nd la Po Ru ss ian Fe y e an nc a Fr G m er p. ly Ita Cz e ch Re en ed Sw Source: own calculations based on data from: Council of Europe, 2001; United Nations, 2001b.
D lan Po n sia Fe ce an Fr y an m r Ge p. ly Ita h ec Re n de e Sw s Cz Ru Source: own calculations based on data from: Council of Europe, 2001; United Nations, 2001b. Decreases in numerical size of the age group 50-64 between 2030 and 2050 are already projected for almost all countries with the exception of the youngest countries. The most significant decreases (over -2 % annually) should be found in Spain and Italy followed by other countries with currently very low fertility levels. The decreases will be so large that in 2050 the absolute size of the 50-64 age group will be less numerous than today in these countries.