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Advances in Risk Management of Government Debt by Organisation for Economic Co-Operation a

By Organisation for Economic Co-Operation a

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The simulated cost in a given future year also depends on the simulated path leading up to that year. For instance, the simulated cost in a given year depends on the size and composition of the debt resulting from the simulation up to that year. 25 11 1 Notes 1. Prepared by Lars Risbjerg, Government Debt Management at Danmarks Nationalbank and Anders Holmlund, Swedish National Debt Office. Large parts of this chapter are based on “Report on interest-rate risk management of government debt”, prepared for the OECD Working Party on Government Debt Management in 2002 by government debt offices from Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal, Sweden, and United Kingdom.

In order to assess and quantify the interest-rate risk, it is necessary to form a view of, and model, the future development in the debt, financing requirements, and interest rates at which the future debt financing takes place. The government’s financing requirement is derived from the refinancing requirements of the existing debt and the government’s budget balance. Fiscal policy is responsible for the primary budget balance (the budget balance excluding debt costs). Thus, the effect on the debt and financing requirements coming from the primary budget balance is exogenous to the debt management problem.

A number of countries actively manage refunding risk by means of debt repurchase and/or debt exchange operations. 2. OVERVIEW OF RISK MANAGEMENT PRACTICES IN OECD COUNTRIES government cash balances, revenues and outlays. To reduce the carry cost, the level of government cash balances is typically set at the minimum level possible which is not expected to require access to overdraft facilities. VII. Operational risk management4 For most countries, operational risk encompasses settlement risk and fraud risk.

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